Permanently shut down or just down right now? A 10-minute diagnosis

A friend asks if a site you both used to use is still around. You open it: the URL doesn't load. Is it down right now, or has it been gone for years? The answer changes what you do next — wait, look for a replacement, find the archived version, or escalate to whoever runs it.

There are six signals worth checking, in priority order. Most "is it permanently gone?" questions resolve in under ten minutes if you check them in the right sequence.

The signals, in order

Each signal narrows the answer further. You almost never need all six.

Signal 1 — DNS resolution

The first question is whether the name resolves at all. There are three possible answers and each one means something different.

NXDOMAIN — The domain doesn't exist in the registry. Either it was never registered or it expired and dropped back to the public pool. Possible states:

• Domain truly never registered (typo in the URL, maybe).
• Domain expired, redemption period ended, pending-delete expired, domain dropped.
• Domain transferred to a different registrar and the old one's DNS hasn't propagated yet (rare but it happens for a few minutes).

SERVFAIL — The resolver tried to answer and gave up. Usually a DNSSEC misconfiguration or an unreachable authoritative nameserver. Not a "the domain is gone" answer — try a different resolver to confirm.

Resolves to an IP — The domain still exists and points somewhere. Move to Signal 2.

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Signal 2 — Domain status (RDAP)

If the name resolves, the registration is alive. The next question is whose registration. A live RDAP record tells you the registrar, the registration and expiry dates, and any active EPP status codes.

The interesting flags:

• clientHold or serverHold — The domain is on hold. The site is offline not because the service died but because something between the owner and the registry isn't right (commonly: unverified WHOIS, unpaid renewal, abuse complaint, court order). The site might come back within days.
• redemptionPeriod — The domain expired 30+ days ago and is in the recoverable but expensive window. Usually means the owner missed a renewal. Likely to either come back (if they pay redemption) or drop (if they don't) within 30 days.
• pendingDelete — The owner is gone. The domain will be back on the public market within 5 days. The site is gone for good.
• No trouble flags, future expiry date — The domain is alive and paid for. Move to Signal 3.

This is exactly what the Domain Status Analyzer surfaces — paste any domain and it returns a plain-English lifecycle classification.

Signal 3 — HTTP response

The domain resolves and the registration is fine. Now what does the actual web server say?

The parking patterns are the most actionable. Common signatures:

• Sedo — <meta name="sedoparking"> or rendered "Domain for sale" copy with a contact-broker form.
• GoDaddy parking — <title> containing "GoDaddy.com" with auction listing.
• Bodis — JavaScript loaded from bodis.com or a redirect through dnsrsearch.com.
• Registrar default park — Generic "this domain is parked" template served by the registrar's nameserver.

A real, live service usually 301s expired URLs to a sensible parent (/some-old-page → /). A dead service either parks the whole domain or 301s the entire site to a single corporate homepage.

Signal 4 — Search engine signal

If the steps above are inconclusive, run a query like "$service_name" shutdown OR sunset OR "shutting down" against a search engine. If the service is dead, the top results almost always include either the official shutdown announcement or a news article covering it.

Two specific signal-rich searches:

• site:$domain with very few or zero results → the domain has been deindexed, which Google does after long-term unresponsive servers or after noindex becomes universal across the site.
• "$service" site:reddit.com → r/$service or r/assistance threads asking "is this dead?" are common signals.

Signal 5 — The Wayback Machine

The Wayback Machine is the single best confirmation that a site used to be what you remember. Three checks:

1. Last successful crawl date. If the most recent capture is from 2019 and it looks normal, the site died sometime after that.
2. First broken capture. Walk forward from the last working snapshot until you find a 404 / parking page / 5xx capture. The transition date is approximately when the service ended.
3. Banner / shutdown notice screenshots. Many shutdowns include a "this service has been retired" banner in the final months. Captures of that banner contain the official end date.

Signal 6 — The graveyard cross-reference

The Internet Graveyard catalogues 30 well-known dead services with shutdown dates, replacements, and official sources. If the service is on the list, you have a curated answer in under five seconds — /graveyard/<slug> carries the full record.

This isn't a substitute for the diagnostic above — most dead services aren't in the graveyard, especially smaller or older ones. But for big-name retirements it short-circuits the entire investigation.

A worked example: Vine

You vaguely remember Vine. You try vine.co. It loads, sort of. What's going on?

1. Signal 1 — DNS. vine.co resolves. Some IP returns from Cloudflare. Domain exists.
2. Signal 2 — RDAP. Registration valid; no trouble flags. Owner: Twitter (X). Expiry: years out.
3. Signal 3 — HTTP. Returns a 200, but the page is the Vine Archive static splash that Twitter posted in 2017 — a few links to greatest-hits compilations.
4. Signal 4 — Search. Top result: "Vine (service) - Wikipedia." Wikipedia confirms shutdown 17 January 2017, archive ran until April 2019, Twitter now keeps a vestigial splash page.
5. Signal 5 — Wayback. Captures from Jan 2017 show "Vine Archive" mode. April 2019 transitions to the current splash. Pre-2017 captures show the original product.
6. Signal 6 — Graveyard. /graveyard/vine — gives the curated answer in one click, including TikTok cited as the spiritual successor.

Verdict. Dead since 2017. Domain alive; product gone.

A worked example: Google Stadia

You try stadia.google.com. It loads.

1. Signal 1 — DNS. Resolves to Google.
2. Signal 2 — RDAP. google.com is alive (Stadia uses a subdomain; subdomains aren't separately registered).
3. Signal 3 — HTTP. 200, served as a Google support page about the Stadia shutdown and refund policy.
4. Signal 4 — Search. Confirms shutdown 18 January 2023.
5. Signal 6 — Graveyard. /graveyard/stadia gives the full record.

Verdict. Dead since Jan 2023. Domain repurposed as a support page.

A worked example: a domain that looks dead but might not be

Someone says "is example.com dead?" You try it. Connection times out.

1. Signal 1 — DNS. Resolves to an IP.
2. Signal 2 — RDAP. Registration valid. clientHold is set.
3. Stop. The site is offline because the registrar pulled the nameservers — but the domain isn't dead. The owner has not abandoned the registration. Most clientHold cases resolve within 24 hours once the owner sees the verification email or pays the outstanding balance.

The diagnosis is genuinely different from a parking-page death. Wrong-pathing this one tells the asker "the service is dead" when it's actually a paperwork issue that will fix itself by tomorrow.

The five-question script

When you have only a minute, ask in order:

1. Does the domain resolve? No → dropped or never registered. Yes → continue.
2. Is the RDAP record clean (no hold, future expiry)? No → see Signal 2 above. Yes → continue.
3. Does the URL return 200 from something that looks like the service? Yes → it's alive. No → continue.
4. Does the URL park, 301 to a parent, or 5xx? Park / parent-301 → dead. 5xx → temporary.
5. Anything in the Internet Graveyard or in a "shutdown" search? Confirms the verdict.

The most useful tools

• Website Down Checker — automated DNS + HTTP + SSL + latency probe with classification.
• Domain Status Analyzer — RDAP / EPP lifecycle with plain-English explanations.
• Internet Graveyard — curated record of 30 dead services.
• Shutdown Radar — live feed of services going dark and announced sunsets.
• Wayback Machine — the only reliable archive of the historic web.

The most useful frame: dead and "down right now" are different problems with different solutions. The diagnostic is not intuition; it's six well-defined signals applied in order. Most of the time, three of the six are enough.